[SMM Nickel Midday Review] Nickel prices rebound slightly on August 5, with Daly saying "two interest rate cuts this year are still appropriate"

SMM Nickel News on August 5:

Macro News:

(1) On the 4th local time, a spokesperson for the European Commission stated that, in accordance with the agreement reached between the EU and the US, the EU will suspend the implementation of two retaliatory measures targeting US tariffs within six months. This extension will officially take effect this Tuesday.

(2) Mary Daly, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, expressed that given the increasing evidence of a weakening job market and no signs of persistent tariff-induced inflation, the timing for an interest rate cut is approaching. Daly mentioned that two 25-basis-point rate cuts this year still seem like an appropriate readjustment. The key lies in whether rate cuts will occur in both September and December, rather than whether they will happen at all.

Spot Market:

Today, the SMM #1 refined nickel price ranges from 120,500 to 123,300 yuan/mt, with an average price of 121,900 yuan/mt, marking a 650 yuan/mt increase from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premiums quotation range for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel is 2,100-2,400 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 2,250 yuan/mt, a 100 yuan/mt decrease from the previous trading day. The spot premiums and discounts quotation range for electrodeposited nickel from mainstream domestic brands is -100 to 300 yuan/mt.

Futures Market:

The most-traded SHFE nickel 2509 contract closed at 120,640 yuan/mt during the night session, up 730 yuan (a 0.61% increase), and fluctuated rangebound in the morning session due to US dollar fluctuations. As of the midday session, SHFE nickel was quoted at 120,700 yuan/mt, up 0.66%.

The US added only 73,000 new jobs in July (expected to be 104,000), and the data for May-June was significantly revised downward by a total of 258,000, with the unemployment rate rising. This data has sparked market concerns about an economic slowdown, causing the US dollar index to fall and nickel prices to rebound slightly. Mary Daly, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, stated that "two rate cuts this year are still appropriate," releasing dovish signals that further suppress the US dollar. In the short term, nickel prices will oscillate amid a tug-of-war between weak fundamentals and macro sentiment support, with a price range of 119,000-123,000 yuan/mt.